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Istanbul: European megacity on two continents
Istanbul is a large city at the very edge of Europe, and has a long and turbulent history at the crossroads
of European and Asian cultures. Istanbul has always been among the largest cities in the world. At the
turn of the 21st century there were approximately 10 million people living in Istanbul, 15 % of the
Turkish population. This figure is estimated to grow by 2.5 million people by 2015 based on high birth
rates and continuing migration from the countryside. In the past 50 years the growth of Istanbul has
been stunning. The built-up area has expanded by 600 % and the population has grown even more,
from approximately 1 million to 10 million. Istanbul has always been and still is a very densely populated
city. The fact that it is divided by the Straits of Bosporus has created very specific land use development
dynamics.
Rapid growth has created numerous problems, such as traffic congestion, pollution (both air and water),
unemployment and other social problems, large areas of unregulated housing (50–70 % according to
Blue Plan, 2005) and squatter settlements, infrastructure which is lagging behind both the expansion of
the city and increasingly restrictive environmental standards (Çağdaş & Berköz, 1996; Erkip, 2000).
What will Istanbul physically look like in 2020? Population growth will remain a key driving force
shaping the Istanbul of 2020. Growth of 25 % means 2.5 million new inhabitants, equivalent to the total
population of Rome. It is also likely that with the modernisation of the economy and the changes brought
by preparations for EU membership, the general standard of living will rise. The improved economic
situation will lead to changing housing preferences, with increasing movement out of the city centre to
the peripheral parts. (Ergun, 2004; Dökmeci et al., 1996). The new suburbs are typically more spacious,
with dominance of larger detached and semi-detached houses, gardens etc. which particularly attract
families (Dökmeci & Berköz, 2000). Even the phenomenon of gated cities, which are inhabited by the
richest strata and guarded 24 hours a day with full commercial and recreational services have spread
to the environs of Istanbul. There are almost 300 gated cities in the immediate vicinity of Istanbul
metropolitan municipality (Blue plan, 2005). As a consequence of these developments the population
density has dropped. The future of the squatter settlements is an unknown factor, although it is likely that
rising living standards (Türkoğlu, 1997) and pressures from the EU will push the authorities to provide
proper housing and services to the squatter settlements. The provision of improved housing for these
areas will require the accommodation of the same number of people in apartments with at least double or
triple the land take.
Residential housing occupies only a part of urban space. Approximately one third is used for commerce,
industries and transport purposes. These land use classes tend to grow at a much quicker pace than
residential areas when the economy is expanding (Kasanko et al., 2006). As Istanbul will remain the
engine of the Turkish economy and will inevitably attract a lot of foreign investment after joining the EU,
it is certain that commercial and service related areas will grow very rapidly (Çağdaş & Berköz, 1996)
and that new business and office areas will be built to accommodate the growth. The globalisation of the
economy and rapid technological development will also create pressures for increases in commercial land.
Attempts to alleviate major problems of traffic and congestion will require further space for new transport
infrastructure. The Marmaray project linking the European and Asian parts of Istanbul via an underwater
railway tunnel and linked to 76 km of combined tube and railway along the coastline will have a drastic
impact on future land use in Istanbul.
Future development paths: scenarios
The land use scenario for the year 2020 follows the main trends from 1988 to 2000 with slightly smaller
growth expectations. The estimated population growth of 2.5 million inhabitants is comparable to the
growth from 1988 to 2000. The simulation was made using the MOLAND model (Barredo et al., 2003;
Barredo et al., 2004).
Three clear development tendencies are evident (see Map). First, the filling in of available land within
previously built-up areas on both the European and Anatolian sides of Istanbul. Second, the growth along
the coastline both westwards and eastwards. This is particularly noticeable on the western side of the
European part of Istanbul where large new residential areas are built in the Bükükçekmece area between
the two lakes near the coastline. The future Marmaray rail link on the Anatolian side will support the
development of the areas close to the coast on the eastern part of the study area. Third, the conservation
of the forest area north of Istanbul where there is relatively little new residential development occurring.
The drivers of urban sprawl
Urban sprawl in Europe 27
Box 6 (cont.)
From an environmental point of view the future developments presented in these simulations are
acceptable. Making the urban structure denser and channelling growth along the major transport axes
reduces environmental impact, and retains large parts of the natural and agricultural areas in the vicinity of
Istanbul. However, it should be emphasised that there are many drivers including housing preferences and
land price, which are exerting pressure for less dense future development. Achieving more compact urban
development and controlled growth necessitates political agreement on planning and zoning objectives and
means of implementing them as well as the control of unauthorised developments.

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